The dollar resumes its upward trend as the market monitors global tensions

The foreign exchange market showed firmness again on Thursday. The official wholesale dollar rose 0.3% to reach $1,488.5. Meanwhile, the blue dollar remains at a new nominal record of $1,555 for sale.

The session recorded a traded amount of u$s389.7 million in the spot segment, practically half of what was registered the previous day.

"In the first three days of this week, the wholesale exchange rate rose by $5, far exceeding the drop of $13.50 recorded in the same period of the previous week," noted Gustavo Quintana, operator at PR Corredores de Cambio. Despite the recent rebounds, the official exchange rate has accumulated an increase of only $1 in July, while throughout 2026 it has advanced $28 (1.9%), well below the inflation accumulated during the first half of the year.

The Central Bank set the ceiling of the exchange rate band at $1,833.77, meaning the wholesale dollar continues to be 23.7% below the upper limit of the floating scheme.

In the retail segment, the dollar at Banco Nación increased by $5 and ended at $1,505 for sale, while the average reported by the Central Bank closed at $1,502.35.

On the other hand, the blue dollar reached a new nominal high of $1,555, surpassing the previous record of $1,550 set in October of last year. However, so far this year, the advance of the informal market remains limited: it has accumulated an increase of $25 (1.6%), also well below inflation.

The gap between the purchase price of the banking system and the informal market continues to encourage the sale of cash dollars in caves and informal agencies.

The session was influenced by the improvement in the sovereign rating announced by Moody's, which raised Argentina's rating from Caa1 to B3 and changed the outlook from stable to positive, aligning with recent decisions by Fitch Ratings and S&P Global Ratings.

For Federico Filippini and Javier Casabal, analysts at Adcap Grupo Financiero, the decision "deepens the process of credit normalization" and could favor the entry of new institutional investors, whose mandates require that more than one rating agency place the sovereign within the B category.

However, they believe that the Government will continue to prioritize lower-cost financing sources, such as multilateral organizations, REPO operations, and dollar issuances in the local market, before fully returning to the international market.

In the same vein, Emilio Botto, head of Strategy and Investments at Mills Capital, stated that a potential international issuance could generate a new compression of country risk, although he estimated that the Executive will continue to develop the local debt curve first through the AO29 bond.

Meanwhile, the Government sent to Congress the project to expand the so-called Fiscal Innocence Law, aiming to incentivize the entry of the so-called "mattress dollars" into the formal circuit through a simplified regime and fewer controls.

In the meantime, various consulting firms agree that in recent weeks there has been a reduction in the demand for exchange rate coverage and a renewed interest in peso-denominated instruments.

The deceleration of inflation and positive real rates continue to drive carry trade strategies, a trend that was also reflected in the latest Treasury auction.

In that operation, the Government managed to renew maturities above 100% and placed Lecap with an effective annual rate close to 25.6%, maintaining the relative attractiveness of investments in local currency.

Still, the international scenario remains a point of attention for investors. The escalation of the conflict between the United States and Iran, threats over the Strait of Hormuz, and rising oil prices continue to condition the performance of emerging assets and keep caution high in global financial markets.

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