Wintermute: The escalation of the Middle East situation combined with stagflation risks brings a temporary respite to the cryptocurrency market

Cryptocurrency market maker Wintermute stated on social media that the situation in the Middle East has entered its third week of escalation, with Brent crude oil rising 26% over the week. The market has adjusted its expectations for interest rate cuts in 2026 to just one. Against this backdrop, the cryptocurrency market has outperformed all major asset classes except for crude oil, with BTC rising over the week, while stocks, bonds, and gold all experienced declines.

In terms of digital assets, BTC rebounded about 10% from Monday's low, marking seven consecutive days of gains, and has regained the $71,000 level; ETH followed suit and maintained above $2,000. The Coinbase BTC premium indicator has reset, as the structural pressure of discount that persisted for months has dissipated. The spot Bitcoin ETF recorded its first consecutive five-day net inflow in 2026, totaling $767 million, with $251 million flowing in on Monday alone, led by IBIT; the Ethereum ETF saw a net inflow of about $160 million over four consecutive days.

Strategy has increased its holdings by 1,360 BTC; Bitmine announced the purchase of ETH for $128 million, with the Ethereum Foundation selling 5,000 ETH directly to it through over-the-counter trading. The implied volatility index for BTC (DVOL) has compressed from 61 to 51, and the correlation between BTC and stocks has also significantly weakened.

On the macro front, core PCE annualized at 3.1%, non-farm payrolls showed a decrease of 92,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, with stagflation becoming the baseline scenario. This week, the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, and Bank of England will announce their interest rate decisions on the same day, marking the most concentrated macro event in recent months.