Twenty One’s First-Day Slide Highlights Investor Caution Toward BTC-Backed Stocks

By: crypto insight|2025/12/15 18:00:09
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Key Takeaways

  • Twenty One Capital’s initial public offering on the NYSE was marked by a 20% drop in share price, reflecting investor wariness toward Bitcoin-heavy listings.
  • Trading close to its net asset value, XXI shares highlighted the market’s reluctance to value Bitcoin-focused companies above their Bitcoin holdings.
  • The decline in share value points to broader market issues such as Bitcoin volatility, fading enthusiasm for SPAC-backed listings, and shrinking mNAV premiums.
  • Investors are increasingly prioritizing Bitcoin-focused firms with solid, sustainable business models over those primarily holding large Bitcoin reserves.

WEEX Crypto News, 2025-12-15 09:49:05

The much-anticipated debut of Twenty One Capital on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) under the ticker XXI unfolded with an unexpected twist, as its shares plummeted by nearly 20% on the first day of trading. This stark contrast to expectations reveals a critical shift in how investors are currently appraising Bitcoin-based equity offerings, underscoring a cautious approach that diverges from the previous enthusiasm toward such ventures.

Introducing Twenty One Capital: A New Contender in the Bitcoin Arena

Twenty One Capital burst onto the public trading scene backed by an impressive array of supporters. As a company with a staunch focus on Bitcoin, it aims to become the largest publicly traded holder of Bitcoin (BTC). Despite being a novice to the stock market, the firm already boasted a substantial holding of over 43,500 BTC during its launch, valued between $3.9 billion and $4.0 billion. Such a transparent commitment to Bitcoin places the firm in a unique position within the digital asset treasury (DAT) companies niche. Different from typical treasury vehicles, Twenty One Capital seeks to establish a robust corporate infrastructure dedicated to Bitcoin-focused financial products, clearly setting its sights beyond mere asset holding.

Institutional backing lends significant weight to Twenty One’s endeavor. With partners like Cantor Fitzgerald, Tether, Bitfinex, and SoftBank, the firm’s support network is formidable, echoing its ambition with credible financial and operational backing. The familiarity of Cantor Equity Partners in this equation cannot be understated as it underscores the strategic deployment of a SPAC to bring the company public, following the footsteps of other Bitcoin-centric companies like MicroStrategy. However, here lies a divergence; Twenty One Capital is intent on proving its mettle not solely by Bitcoin accumulation but through innovating revenue-generating creations within the financial sector.

The Market Reality Check: A Daunting Debut

The December 9, 2025, market debut of Twenty One Capital did not pan out as anticipated. Investors, wary of the present market climate, responded to its IPO with skepticism, causing its stock to fall to $11.96 by the day’s end—a nearly 20% decline from its initial offering price. This fall in stock value is telling. It didn’t significantly surpass its net asset value (NAV), embodying a vivid market sentiment: simply holding large Bitcoin reserves is no longer sufficient for investors. The perceived potential of Bitcoin-heavy companies lies not just in their BTC holdings but in their ability to effectively capitalize on them through sustainable and innovative business models.

This reception aligns with existing trends in the market, where newly listed crypto-related stocks often find themselves undervalued compared to pre-IPO expectations. In this case, despite the large-scale Bitcoin holdings and substantial backing Twenty One had, these attributes failed to carry its stock above the NAV, signaling a fundamental market reassessment is at hand.

Analyzing Investor Caution and Market Dynamics

This adverse reception of XXI shares speaks volumes about present-day market conditions. Investors are treading cautiously, influenced partially by the erosion of the multiple-to-net-asset-value (mNAV) premium. In the past, firms with robust Bitcoin treasuries were able to leverage a high mNAV premium, reflecting investor confidence. However, Twenty One’s equality with its net asset value suggests a reversion from these trends, perhaps indicative of a burgeoning focus on the firm’s profitability and strategic operations rather than sheer asset volume.

Cryptocurrency markets host inherent volatility, which undoubtedly feeds into the overall sentiment. From a peak in October, Bitcoin saw a decrease of about 25-30% leading up to XXI’s launch, a descent not unnoticed by the keen-eyed investor. This risk-aversion correlates with a dip in enthusiasm for SPAC-driven listings—vehicles associated with increased market speculation and risk. Such scrutiny on SPACs stems from a history of subpar performance post-merger, contributing to market wariness.

Thus, are we witnessing a valuation paradox—whereby a newly public entity trades below the value of its Bitcoin treasury? It seems plausible. Essentially, the stock is being viewed as a volatile Bitcoin proxy rather than a dynamic business entity, highlighting the persistent challenges in overcoming this perception barrier.

Shifting Priorities: The Demand for Proven Business Models

As the market continues to evolve, a clear narrative emerges: Bitcoin-centric firms must demonstrate sound, revenue-compatible strategies rather than relying solely on Bitcoin reserves. Twenty One’s blueprint, ambitious yet undefined in terms of revenue calculus, lacks the kind of detailed operational strategy that investors now seem to crave. Indeed, the launch timing was unfavorable, occurring amidst intense scrutiny of digital asset treasury entities and growing capital-raising hurdles within the sector.

An apparent market shift has arrived, incentivizing firms to provide clear, differentiated models that ensure sustained returns. Without a concrete plan on display, even the most compelling BTC balance sheet may fail to entice discerning investors. Markets are now seeming to favor entities that offer promising returns through tangible, cash-generating endeavors that utilize their core assets innovatively and effectively.

In conclusion, while Twenty One Capital’s market initiation was somewhat anticlimactic, it is emblematic of a broader market maturation. Investors are re-evaluating Bitcoin-backed residues not only through the lens of asset possession but with a viewing lens focused on operating success and financial performance. This reality prompts companies in the sector to pivot, aligning more closely with traditional market expectations without forgoing their innovative roots. Such a transition signifies a notably more nuanced playing field, challenging future entrants and incumbents to adapt or risk marginalization in the expanding digital economy landscape.


FAQ

What is the significance of Twenty One Capital’s stock trading close to its net asset value?

The lack of a premium indicates that investors currently view the stock primarily as a direct representation of Bitcoin holdings, without attributing potential future business success to the company’s valuation. This suggests an investor demand for more concrete, operational business models alongside Bitcoin holdings.

Why did Twenty One Capital opt for a SPAC to go public?

Utilizing a Special-Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC) allows companies like Twenty One Capital to enter the public market more swiftly and easily compared to traditional IPO methods. However, a recent history of underperformance has led to skepticism about SPACs, impacting market sentiment.

How did market volatility affect the launch of Twenty One Capital?

Market volatility, particularly in the cryptocurrency sector, contributes to investor caution. In the weeks preceding Twenty One’s debut, Bitcoin’s declining value likely amplified concerns about the volatility of crypto-linked equities, including XXI shares.

What differentiates Twenty One Capital from other Bitcoin-centric firms?

Twenty One Capital seeks to go beyond being a Bitcoin treasury by creating infrastructure for Bitcoin-aligned financial products. Contrasting with firms like MicroStrategy, its strategy includes revenue-generating growth plans, although these were not well-defined at the time of its IPO.

What does the erosion of the mNAV premium mean for the industry?

The shrinking mNAV premium reflects a decline in investor willingness to pay above net asset value for Bitcoin treasury firms. This shift pressures companies to prove their value through strategic business operations, emphasizing revenue generation and sustainable growth models.

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China's Central Bank and Eight Other Departments' Latest Regulatory Focus: Key Attention to RWA Tokenized Asset Risk


Foreword: Today, the People's Bank of China's website published the "Notice of the People's Bank of China, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration for Market Regulation, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission, State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Further Preventing and Dealing with Risks Related to Virtual Currency and Others (Yinfa [2026] No. 42)", the latest regulatory requirements from the eight departments including the central bank, which are basically consistent with the regulatory requirements of recent years. The main focus of the regulation is on speculative activities such as virtual currency trading, exchanges, ICOs, overseas platform services, and this time, regulatory oversight of RWA has been added, explicitly prohibiting RWA tokenization, stablecoins (especially those pegged to the RMB). The following is the full text:


To the people's governments of all provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the Central Government, the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps:


  Recently, there have been speculative activities related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets (RWA) tokenization, disrupting the economic and financial order and jeopardizing the property security of the people. In order to further prevent and address the risks related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets tokenization, effectively safeguard national security and social stability, in accordance with the "Law of the People's Republic of China on the People's Bank of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Commercial Banks," "Securities Law of the People's Republic of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Securities Investment Funds," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Futures and Derivatives," "Cybersecurity Law of the People's Republic of China," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on the Administration of Renminbi," "Regulations on Prevention and Disposal of Illegal Fundraising," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on Foreign Exchange Administration," "Telecommunications Regulations of the People's Republic of China," and other provisions, after reaching consensus with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, and with the approval of the State Council, the relevant matters are notified as follows:


  I. Clarify the essential attributes of virtual currency, Real-World Assets tokenization, and related business activities


  (I) Virtual currency does not possess the legal status equivalent to fiat currency. Virtual currencies such as Bitcoin, Ether, Tether, etc., have the main characteristics of being issued by non-monetary authorities, using encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technology, existing in digital form, etc. They do not have legal tender status, should not and cannot be circulated and used as currency in the market.


  The business activities related to virtual currency are classified as illegal financial activities. The exchange of fiat currency and virtual currency within the territory, exchange of virtual currencies, acting as a central counterparty in buying and selling virtual currencies, providing information intermediary and pricing services for virtual currency transactions, token issuance financing, and trading of virtual currency-related financial products, etc., fall under illegal financial activities, such as suspected illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public issuance of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, etc., are strictly prohibited across the board and resolutely banned in accordance with the law. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to provide virtual currency-related services to domestic entities in any form.


  A stablecoin pegged to a fiat currency indirectly fulfills some functions of the fiat currency in circulation. Without the consent of relevant authorities in accordance with the law and regulations, any domestic or foreign entity or individual is not allowed to issue a RMB-pegged stablecoin overseas.


(II)Tokenization of Real-World Assets refers to the use of encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technologies to transform ownership rights, income rights, etc., of assets into tokens (tokens) or other interests or bond certificates with token (token) characteristics, and carry out issuance and trading activities.


  Engaging in the tokenization of real-world assets domestically, as well as providing related intermediary, information technology services, etc., which are suspected of illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public offering of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, and other illegal financial activities, shall be prohibited; except for relevant business activities carried out with the approval of the competent authorities in accordance with the law and regulations and relying on specific financial infrastructures. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to illegally provide services related to the tokenization of real-world assets to domestic entities in any form.


  II. Sound Work Mechanism


  (III) Inter-agency Coordination. The People's Bank of China, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of virtual currency-related illegal financial activities.


  The China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of illegal financial activities related to the tokenization of real-world assets.


  (IV) Strengthening Local Implementation. The people's governments at the provincial level are overall responsible for the prevention and disposal of risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets in their respective administrative regions. The specific leading department is the local financial regulatory department, with participation from branches and dispatched institutions of the State Council's financial regulatory department, telecommunications regulators, public security, market supervision, and other departments, in coordination with cyberspace departments, courts, and procuratorates, to improve the normalization of the work mechanism, effectively connect with the relevant work mechanisms of central departments, form a cooperative and coordinated working pattern between central and local governments, effectively prevent and properly handle risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets, and maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  III. Strengthened Risk Monitoring, Prevention, and Disposal


  (5) Enhanced Risk Monitoring. The People's Bank of China, China Securities Regulatory Commission, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Cyberspace Administration of China, and other departments continue to improve monitoring techniques and system support, enhance cross-departmental data analysis and sharing, establish sound information sharing and cross-validation mechanisms, promptly grasp the risk situation of activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization. Local governments at all levels give full play to the role of local monitoring and early warning mechanisms. Local financial regulatory authorities, together with branches and agencies of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, as well as departments of cyberspace and public security, ensure effective connection between online monitoring, offline investigation, and fund tracking, efficiently and accurately identify activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly share risk information, improve early warning information dissemination, verification, and rapid response mechanisms.


  (6) Strengthened Oversight of Financial Institutions, Intermediaries, and Technology Service Providers. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing account opening, fund transfer, and clearing services for virtual currency-related business activities, issuing and selling financial products related to virtual currency, including virtual currency and related financial products in the scope of collateral, conducting insurance business related to virtual currency, or including virtual currency in the scope of insurance liability. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing custody, clearing, and settlement services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related business and related financial products. Relevant intermediary institutions and information technology service providers are prohibited from providing intermediary, technical, or other services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related businesses and related financial products.


  (7) Enhanced Management of Internet Information Content and Access. Internet enterprises are prohibited from providing online business venues, commercial displays, marketing, advertising, or paid traffic diversion services for virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities. Upon discovering clues of illegal activities, they should promptly report to relevant departments and provide technical support and assistance for related investigations and inquiries. Based on the clues transferred by the financial regulatory authorities, the cyberspace administration, telecommunications authorities, and public security departments should promptly close and deal with websites, mobile applications (including mini-programs), and public accounts engaged in virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities in accordance with the law.


  (8) Strengthened Entity Registration and Advertisement Management. Market supervision departments strengthen entity registration and management, and enterprise and individual business registrations must not contain terms such as "virtual currency," "virtual asset," "cryptocurrency," "crypto asset," "stablecoin," "real-world asset tokenization," or "RWA" in their names or business scopes. Market supervision departments, together with financial regulatory authorities, legally enhance the supervision of advertisements related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly investigating and handling relevant illegal advertisements.


  (IX) Continued Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities. The National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments, strictly controls virtual currency mining activities, continuously promotes the rectification of virtual currency mining activities. The people's governments of various provinces take overall responsibility for the rectification of "mining" within their respective administrative regions. In accordance with the requirements of the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments in the "Notice on the Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities" (NDRC Energy-saving Building [2021] No. 1283) and the provisions of the "Guidance Catalog for Industrial Structure Adjustment (2024 Edition)," a comprehensive review, investigation, and closure of existing virtual currency mining projects are conducted, new mining projects are strictly prohibited, and mining machine production enterprises are strictly prohibited from providing mining machine sales and other services within the country.


  (X) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal Financial Activities. Upon discovering clues to illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets, local financial regulatory authorities, branches of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, and other relevant departments promptly investigate, determine, and properly handle the issues in accordance with the law, and seriously hold the relevant entities and individuals legally responsible. Those suspected of crimes are transferred to the judicial authorities for processing according to the law.


 (XI) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal and Criminal Activities. The Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, as well as judicial and procuratorial organs, in accordance with their respective responsibilities, rigorously crack down on illegal and criminal activities related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, such as fraud, money laundering, illegal business operations, pyramid schemes, illegal fundraising, and other illegal and criminal activities carried out under the guise of virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, etc.


  (XII) Strengthen Industry Self-discipline. Relevant industry associations should enhance membership management and policy advocacy, based on their own responsibilities, advocate and urge member units to resist illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets. Member units that violate regulatory policies and industry self-discipline rules are to be disciplined in accordance with relevant self-regulatory management regulations. By leveraging various industry infrastructure, conduct risk monitoring related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, and promptly transfer issue clues to relevant departments.


  IV. Strict Supervision of Domestic Entities Engaging in Overseas Business Activities


(XIII) Without the approval of relevant departments in accordance with the law and regulations, domestic entities and foreign entities controlled by them may not issue virtual currency overseas.


  (XIV) Domestic entities engaging directly or indirectly in overseas external debt-based tokenization of real-world assets, or conducting asset securitization activities abroad based on domestic ownership rights, income rights, etc. (hereinafter referred to as domestic equity), should be strictly regulated in accordance with the principles of "same business, same risk, same rules." The National Development and Reform Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other relevant departments regulate it according to their respective responsibilities. For other forms of overseas real-world asset tokenization activities based on domestic equity by domestic entities, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with relevant departments, supervise according to their division of responsibilities. Without the consent and filing of relevant departments, no unit or individual may engage in the above-mentioned business.


  (15) Overseas subsidiaries and branches of domestic financial institutions providing Real World Asset Tokenization-related services overseas shall do so legally and prudently. They shall have professional personnel and systems in place to effectively mitigate business risks, strictly implement customer onboarding, suitability management, anti-money laundering requirements, and incorporate them into the domestic financial institutions' compliance and risk management system. Intermediaries and information technology service providers offering Real World Asset Tokenization services abroad based on domestic equity or conducting Real World Asset Tokenization business in the form of overseas debt for domestic entities directly or indirectly venturing abroad must strictly comply with relevant laws and regulations. They should establish and improve relevant compliance and internal control systems in accordance with relevant normative requirements, strengthen business and risk control, and report the business developments to the relevant regulatory authorities for approval or filing.


  V. Strengthen Organizational Implementation


  (16) Strengthen organizational leadership and overall coordination. All departments and regions should attach great importance to the prevention of risks related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization, strengthen organizational leadership, clarify work responsibilities, form a long-term effective working mechanism with centralized coordination, local implementation, and shared responsibilities, maintain high pressure, dynamically monitor risks, effectively prevent and mitigate risks in an orderly and efficient manner, legally protect the property security of the people, and make every effort to maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  (17) Widely carry out publicity and education. All departments, regions, and industry associations should make full use of various media and other communication channels to disseminate information through legal and policy interpretation, analysis of typical cases, and education on investment risks, etc. They should promote the illegality and harm of virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses and their manifestations, fully alert to potential risks and hidden dangers, and enhance public awareness and identification capabilities for risk prevention.


  VI. Legal Responsibility


  (18) Engaging in illegal financial activities related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization in violation of this notice, as well as providing services for virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses, shall be punished in accordance with relevant regulations. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law. For domestic entities and individuals who knowingly or should have known that overseas entities illegally provided virtual currency or Real World Asset Tokenization-related services to domestic entities and still assisted them, relevant responsibilities shall be pursued according to the law. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law.


  (19) If any unit or individual invests in virtual currencies, Real World Asset Tokens, and related financial products against public order and good customs, the relevant civil legal actions shall be invalid, and any resulting losses shall be borne by them. If there are suspicions of disrupting financial order and jeopardizing financial security, the relevant departments shall deal with them according to the law.


  This notice shall enter into force upon the date of its issuance. The People's Bank of China and ten other departments' "Notice on Further Preventing and Dealing with the Risks of Virtual Currency Trading Speculation" (Yinfa [2021] No. 237) is hereby repealed.


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