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Next Week Macro Outlook: CPI Data Incoming, Potentially Further Confirming the Fed's Rate Cut Cycle
BlockBeats News, December 13: Despite the Federal Reserve's expected interest rate cut this week and the release of a more dovish signal than anticipated, the reality challenge faced by the artificial intelligence field has led to a complex and divergent trend in the U.S. stock and bond markets. This week, long-term U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rising by about 5 basis points during the "Fed rate cut week." The macro outlook for next week is as follows:
Monday 22:30: Federal Reserve Governor Milan delivers a speech;
Monday 23:30: FOMC Permanent Voter and New York Fed President Williams delivers a speech on the economic outlook;
Thursday 01:30: 2027 FOMC Voter and Atlanta Fed President Bostic delivers a speech on the economic outlook;
Thursday 21:30: U.S. November Non-Seasonally Adjusted CPI YoY/Core CPI YoY, U.S. November Seasonally Adjusted CPI MoM/Core CPI MoM;
Thursday 21:30: U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending December 13;
Friday 23:00: U.S. December University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Final, U.S. December 1-Year Inflation Rate Expectations Final.
Next week's release of U.S. CPI data will be a key turning point for the U.S. dollar. If the CPI data is below expectations (the latest data shows 3%, still above the Fed's 2% target), it will further confirm the rationale for the Fed's rate cut cycle, and the U.S. dollar may face further downward pressure; otherwise, it may reverse this trend.
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