Launch on Binance Alpha, how much is your HAEDAL airdrop worth?
Original Title: "Binance Alpha Goes Live, How Much is Your HAEDAL Airdrop Worth?"
Original Author: Alex Liu, Foresight News
HAEDAL is the token of Haedal, a liquidity staking protocol in the Sui ecosystem, and has been confirmed to go live on Binance Alpha and Bybit spot. Haedal previously announced the completion of a seed funding round in January, with the specific amount undisclosed. Investors participating in this funding round include Hashed, Comma3 Ventures, OKX Ventures, Animoca Ventures, Sui Foundation, Flow Traders, Dewhales Capital, Cetus, Scallop, among others.
Furthermore, Haedal has opened an airdrop query interface and will commence token claiming today (April 29) at 20:00 UTC.
In a previous article "The Most Valuable Sui Airdrop? WAL Token Value Comprehensive Prediction," the author accurately predicted the opening price of the Sui ecosystem's WAL token. This time, what is the fair price for HAEDAL?
Let's first look at the tokenomics: HAEDAL has a total supply of 1 billion tokens, with the initial circulating supply accounting for 19.5% of the total supply. Ecosystem incentive allocation is 55%, liquidity fund is 10%, investors hold 15%, and the team and advisors hold 20%.
Pre-market Price
Next, let's examine the pre-market prices. Currently, HAEDAL is priced at 0.3 USDC on Whales.market and 0.1275 USDC on the PinataBot pre-market on Sui, corresponding to fully diluted market caps of $300 million and $127.5 million, respectively.
The author believes that the price on Whales.market is not reliable. On the quoted order book, the price of 0.3 USDC is for sell orders, with few buy orders, and behind the highest bid of 0.15 USDC is only a $300 margin.
Observing historical transactions on Whales.market that were executed at a high price, one will notice that the total transaction volume is less than $1000. Such a low transaction volume is not sufficient to be considered as reliable data reference, and is more likely a "high expectation" created by stakeholders at a low cost.
Comparison with Peer Projects
Returning to a rational analysis, what is the fundamental ranking of the Haedal protocol within the Sui ecosystem?
Sui Ecosystem Protocol TVL Ranking, data source: DeFiLlama
Haedal (LST) is ranked fourth in TVL, following Suilend (Lending + AMM + LST), NAVI (Lending + LST), and Cetus (AMM). It is worth noting that even the TVL of Suilend's liquidity staking part (SpringSui) is higher than Haedal, so Haedal is the fourth protocol in terms of Sui ecosystem TVL and the second protocol in terms of LST track TVL.
As Suilend is the lending protocol with the highest TVL in the Sui ecosystem and the liquidity staking LST protocol, the fully diluted valuation (FDV) of the token SEND is only around $72 million. If HAEDAL's value is higher than $0.1, then either HAEDAL is overvalued or SEND is undervalued.
Conclusion
Combining HAEDAL's funding background, the high premium of its listing platform, current high level of attention, pre-market performance, and a comprehensive analysis of Haedal protocol's actual market share and project fundamentals, the author believes that there is a small probability for HAEDAL to open above $0.1, but this would also be the author's selling range. In the short term, HAEDAL is highly likely to trend towards $0.05 or even lower.
The above is the author's subjective analysis and does not constitute financial advice. Please DYOR (Do Your Own Research).
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