Goldman Sachs Previews Non-Farm Payrolls: Data Needs to Be "Substantially Surprising" to Shake Up Fed's Rate Cut Expectations for April
BlockBeats News, January 9th, Goldman Sachs stated that the U.S. non-farm payroll report for December 2025, set to be released Friday evening, is unlikely to substantially alter market expectations for the Fed's policy, unless there is a significant unexpected outcome, as current market pricing has solidly anchored on the path of easing policy starting in mid-year.
In a research report to clients, Goldman Sachs expects the non-farm payroll employment to increase by about 70,000, in line with general expectations. Despite unofficial market "whisper numbers" implying a slight upside risk, the bank believes that a result close to expectations would reinforce rather than disrupt the existing macroeconomic narrative.
The market is currently pricing in two 25-basis-point rate cuts by the Fed this year, with the first 25-basis-point cut expected around late April.
Goldman Sachs stated that labor data would need to show a "fairly dramatic" upside or downside surprise to significantly bring forward or push back this timing.
From a market perspective, Goldman Sachs views non-farm payroll data in the range of 70,000 to 100,000 as the most favorable outcome for the stock market, aligning with a scenario of continued economic expansion that neither reignites inflation concerns nor threatens the rate-cutting cycle. Such a result would support the view that the U.S. economy is gradually slowing rather than abruptly stalling.
In contrast, non-farm payroll data below 50,000 would be interpreted as below the level of job growth estimates needed to sustain economic stability, potentially unsettling investors by raising concerns about a sharp growth slowdown.
On the other extreme, Goldman Sachs stated that if the data exceeds 125,000, it may prompt the market to reassess the timing of the Fed's first rate cut, pushing back the expected rate cut to June. (FXStreet)
You may also like

Kyle Samani's Exit Scam, Is There More to the Story?

February 10th Market Key Intelligence, How Much Did You Miss?

Tokenomics New Paradigm? When Backpack Starts Enabling VCs to "Deferred Gratification"

BankrCoin Achieves New Milestones as YZi Labs and ETH Investors Make Significant Moves
Key Takeaways BankrCoin (BNKR) hit a new all-time high with significant market activity. YZi Labs executed a major…

Bitcoin Tests $75K Amid Market Predictions
Key Takeaways Bitcoin shows a 47% chance to test the $75,000 mark this February, contrasting with a potential…

MrBeast Acquires Step to Enhance Financial Offerings for Youth
Key Takeaways YouTube star MrBeast has acquired the financial services platform Step through Beast Industries. The acquisition aims…

Polymarket Predicts Bitcoin Uptrend as MrBeast Ventures into Fintech
Key Takeaways Bitcoin’s Potential Surge: Polymarket denotes a fluctuating probability of Bitcoin achieving $75,000 in February, reflecting volatile…

MrBeast Enters Financial Services with Step Acquisition
Key Takeaways Binance announced an Alpha Airdrop event, highlighting the growing trend of gamified airdrops. Bitcoin prediction markets…

Analysts Predict Bitcoin May Fall to $55K as Support Levels Threaten
Key Takeaways Analysts suggest a potential drop of Bitcoin to $55K if current support levels are breached. Galaxy…

Analysts Predict Bitcoin May Drop to $55K Amid Support Challenges
Key Takeaways Experts caution that Bitcoin could fall to $55,000 if current support levels are breached. The market…

Bitcoin May Decline to $55K: Analysts Warn
Key Takeaways Analysts project Bitcoin could drop to $55,000 if key support levels fail. Technical analysts forecast that…

YZI Labs Transfers Massive ID Tokens to Binance as BNKR Hits New High
Key Takeaways BNKR, a digital currency, has achieved its highest-priced milestone of $0.295 CAD as of January 26,…

MrBeast Acquires Step, Expanding Influence in Teen Finance Market
Key Takeaways MrBeast has acquired the financial services app Step, which caters specifically to Gen Z users. Step…

Analysts Predict Bitcoin’s Critical Support Level May Trigger Decline
Key Takeaways Experts indicate a crucial moment for Bitcoin, with potential price drop to $55,000 if support fails.…

Michael Saylor Faces Bitcoin Valuation Challenges: Impact on the Crypto Market
Key Takeaways Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin investment is currently valued at $55 billion, but recent market trends have seen…

MrBeast Acquires Step FinTech App in Strategic Move
Key Takeaways MrBeast’s company, Beast Industries, has announced the acquisition of Step, a fintech app focused on Gen…

Bitcoin’s Potential Surge Sparks Debate Among Investors
Key Takeaways The probability that Bitcoin will reach $75,000 in February fluctuates as predicted by Polymarket. Bitcoin recently…

Analysts Predict Bitcoin’s Potential Plunge to $55K
Key Takeaways Analysts warn of a possible drop to $55K if Bitcoin’s current support breaks. 10X Research and…
Kyle Samani's Exit Scam, Is There More to the Story?
February 10th Market Key Intelligence, How Much Did You Miss?
Tokenomics New Paradigm? When Backpack Starts Enabling VCs to "Deferred Gratification"
BankrCoin Achieves New Milestones as YZi Labs and ETH Investors Make Significant Moves
Key Takeaways BankrCoin (BNKR) hit a new all-time high with significant market activity. YZi Labs executed a major…
Bitcoin Tests $75K Amid Market Predictions
Key Takeaways Bitcoin shows a 47% chance to test the $75,000 mark this February, contrasting with a potential…
MrBeast Acquires Step to Enhance Financial Offerings for Youth
Key Takeaways YouTube star MrBeast has acquired the financial services platform Step through Beast Industries. The acquisition aims…