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Ethena Founder: Crypto-Native Capital may have run out of steam to pump meme coin valuations, tokens backed by TradFi endorsement will undergo a complete divergence from regular meme coins
BlockBeats News, July 25th, Ethena Labs founder Guy Young posted on social media: "One of my major concerns is that the native capital of crypto may have been exhausted, unable to propel meme coins past the previous cycle's peak. Observing the total nominal market capitalization peak of meme coins in Q4 2021 and Q4 2024, both stopped at around $1.2 trillion (a value that is almost identical after adjusting for inflation). Perhaps this is the global retail capital's valuation ceiling for 99% of meme projects?"
However, for tokens with real business operations, tangible products, and generating revenue for real users, there exists a massive blue ocean to expand channels to stock market institutional investors. Compared to the global stock market capitalization, the entire meme coin market is just a drop in the bucket. The current NAV premium arbitrage is clearly a flash in the pan, with Saylor being the only exception, ultimately due to its unique leverage advantage in its capital structure (quasi non-redeemable + quasi).
But why did Ethena still support StablecoinX's ENA treasury strategy? The core goal is to build a gateway for stock market funds to enter—these funds have a significant excess demand for stablecoins and digital dollar field's hyper-growth enterprises. This is unrelated to short-term NAV arbitrage; the key is to open the gate to an untapped capital pool. Ethena faces the well-known dilemma of VC unlocking pressure, and I have personally made countless mistakes in fundraising and still reflect on them. There is a severe capital misalignment in the crypto world: private VC capital far exceeds the liquid capital required to support token valuations, creating a mirrored opposition to the Web2 world (where private capital is only a fraction of the stock market).
Of course, this does not apply to all junk coins. Zero-revenue meme projects, even if dressed in an equity shell, remain air. But I firmly believe that for the few tokens that can obtain traditional financial endorsement and align with long-term growth trends, this will be a significant positive. Apart from mainstream coins, such tokens globally do not exceed 10, and they will ultimately differentiate completely from coins that have never attracted TradFi."
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